How do we see Wicked’s acting nominations playing out in both part 1 and part 2?

There has been a lot of discussion about how Wicked’s acting nominations might get impacted by the fact that it’s a “back to back” 2 parter. Some think they’ll want to save the awards for part 2, and some think they won’t award part 2 because it’s essentially multiple awards for one performance.

To my knowledge, Ian McKellen is the only actor in history to be nominated for a Part 1 of a back to back (actually back to back to back) for LOTR : FOTR. He did not win. No actor has ever been nominated for a Part 2 (or 3) of a back to back.

For this season, Erivo and Grande have hit every major precursor so I think the Academy won’t care about nominating a part 1. However, where things go from there is up in the air.

My prediction is that Erivo and Grande both get nominated for Part 1. I think Erivo’s chance of winning is probably around 1%, while Grande’s is probably around 25%. Regardless of whether they win, if both are nominated for part 1, NEITHER will be nominated for Part 2. I just don’t see the Academy nominating both parts of a back to back, so if you get a nomination for part 1 you are done for part 2.

Then we have Jonathon Bailey. He’s probably got a 1% chance of being nominated for Part 1 purely because of the SAG nom. Some have been predicting he may have a better chance in Part 2. I just don’t see Fiyero as an Oscar character, but depending on what is added to part 2 you never know.

This is how I see things playing out:

Erivo and Grande both get nominated for part 1, both lose, and neither get nominated for part 2. Bailey misses the nomination for part 1 and then is in consideration for part 2 but ultimately misses there too (but possibly picks up some more love with other groups).

What do you think?