What are the chances my friend is secretly a repressor? A thorough mathematical and cross-textual analysis

In this study we will be examining the use of novel mathematical techniques to identify the trans gene in individuals with no outward signs of being trans. We will be using my friend Bill (real name redacted for patient confidentiality) as a case study. Bill has shown zero outward signs of repressing gender dysphoric thoughts (being "a repper") and acts like a completely typical cis male. However, as I will now demonstrate via thorough probabilistic analysis, the signs of latent transsexualism need not be outwardly apparent. It is my hope that these methods may be of use to other individuals to determine the presence of reppers among their own friends and family.

Most studies seem to indicate that around 1% of the global population is trans, but this statistic is known to be inaccurate because of the large amount of people who either choose to hide their gender dysphoria because of fear of not being accepted, or who simply do not realise that they have gender dysphoria. We therefore begin with the assumption that as a baseline, about 5% of the human population is actually trans, in the sense that they experience distress about their gender (whether they realise or not) significant enough that pursuing a gender transition would result in a substantial improvement in quality of life. Removing those in this demographic who are already outwardly trans, I therefore estimate that individuals who are not outwardly trans have a 4% likelihood of having hidden gender dysphoria. However, there are various conditions/circumstances that are over-represented in the trans community that can add to one’s propensity for being a trans. I will now go over these factors in the case of Bill.

• Bill has EDS, autism and ADHD. Very strong candidate for Meyer-Powers Syndrome. 5 times more likely to be a trans.
• Bill comes from a middle-eastern country. This means that although he has not outwardly expressed any gender-related distress, it is more likely he is strongly repressing any such distress for fear of the shame it would bring to his family. 1.5 times more likely to be a trans.
• Bill studies in a STEM field at university. 2 times more likely to be a trans.
• Although he has never told me explicitly, Bill is almost definitely bisexual (he listens to Tyler, the Creator). 1.5 times more likely to be a trans.

We now combine these risk factors with the baseline percentage (4%) to determine Bill’s probability of being a trans.

4% * 5 * 1.5 * 2 * 1.5 = 90% chance of being a trans.

In conclusion, Bill is almost certainly a repper. Suggested treatment method: spike her food with estrogen to prevent imminent twinkdeath and allow her to finally become her true self. Whether or not she believes she needs hormone therapy, it is for her own good.

My detractors might call this analysis “inaccurate” or “strange” or “kinda messed up”. I call it science.